Dan Gildea

LTL Market Check – Weekly Update About a month ago I mentioned the LTL market felt like it was starting to shift. After another few weeks of conversations with customers, that trend still feels real. A few things worth watching right now: • Capacity is tightening – The Logistics Managers’ Index recently showed transportation capacity dropping to its lowest level since 2021, signaling fewer trucks available in the market. • Carriers are holding pricing discipline – The TD Cowen / AFS Freight Index shows LTL rates still sitting nearly 68% above the 2018 baseline, with year-over-year rate growth continuing. • Truckload volatility is pushing freight back into LTL – Spot truckload rates have been rising again due to tightening capacity and carrier exits. From my seat, nothing dramatic has happened overnight— but the market definitely feels like it’s slowly tightening and resetting. For shippers, the biggest takeaway right now: 👉 Clean shipment data matters more than ever (dims, weight, density, NMFC). Bad data = bad surprises. Sources: FreightWaves, Reuters, AFS Freight Index #LTL #FreightMarket #Logistics #SupplyChain #Transportation

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FreightWaves published an article pointing to some green shoots in truckload spot rates (https://lnkd.in/gkvjppgE). While I know carriers are anxiously awaiting the market to turn, there are a few reasons I'd hold off getting too excited just yet. One chart below. Thoughts: •The chart shows DAT Freight & Analytics dry van spot linehaul rate (note, this is my estimate based off using a regression of historical surcharge data against the EIA's diesel price). October is coming in ~$0.07 a mile above September, to $1.68. This is good news. However, for historical perspective, it's just way too early to call a market change coming soon. •One confounding factor: Prime Day is/was October 7 and October 8. Target and Walmart have also been running large sales. This could be having some impact on rates (knowing the loads are very time sensitive). •Looking ahead, there are multiple demand headwinds including: [1]: Manufacturers' new orders falling into contraction territory in September per Institute for Supply Management and various Federal Reserve Board bank surveys. [2]: Single-family housing permits falling sharply since March, and down 11% year-over-year as of August (https://lnkd.in/gcEhP-q2). Permits are a strong predictor of future starts. [3]: Weak oil & gas activity. Implication: the underlying economic fundamentals do not point to the type of sustained freight demand growth that is needed to support a bull market pricing cycle (and certainly nothing like we saw in 2017-2018). #supplychain #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics #transportation

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