Blake Hoffarber, CRM

Just read CCC’s latest Crash Report, a few clear takeaways on APD Industry: • Claim frequency remains muted, even with miles driven rising. • The APD market has stabilized, but at a permanently higher level of complexity. • Insurance cost inflation is cooling, easing pressure on consumers. • Claims handling is harder than ever as diagnostics, ADAS, and total losses continue to rise. Stability is back, simplicity is not.

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Combo long-term care (LTC) products are among the most complex to model—and Oliver Wyman’s 2025 survey on actuarial software and modeling practices across the insurance industry confirmed it. With this in mind, our LTC team ran a follow-up survey focused entirely on combo LTC modeling—from a pricing, valuation, and projections perspective. The result: Practical insights, backed by participation representing the vast majority of combo LTC business ever written, including nearly all carriers currently offering linked-benefit Life/LTC products. We’ll be sharing highlights at the ILTCI Conference on Monday, March 9:   ➡️ 10:45 a.m. — The Future of LTC Pricing & Inforce Management – Post-COVID Lessons and Evolving Assumptions with Michael Rustemeyer, FSA, MAAA ➡️ 3:45 p.m. — Challenges & Triumphs: Combo LTC Actuarial Model Development with Dustin Plotkin   Want to dig deeper? Contact me or one of our other LTC survey leads: Dustin Plotkin | Michael Rustemeyer, FSA, MAAA | Gabriel Alboukrek, FSA

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CMS just released the 2027 MA and Part D Advance Notice and it reads to me like a headwind for broker comp. There is going to be margin compression based on these numbers in an already tough environment. Like last year, expect consistent lobbying by health plans and the final number may increase again the same way it did least year, but the out the gate number was much more favorable last year. Expect further cuts to embedded dental/vision and other supplemental as well. The headline expected average change in payment will be 2.54% They are also updating the Part C risk adjustment model that used more recent data, updating from 2018-2019 to 23-24 costs. CMS also proposed to improve the model’s predictive accuracy for beneficiaries in MA prescription drug (MA-PD) plans and standalone prescription drug plans (PDPs) by calibrating the model separately for the MA-PD and PDP populations, as well as continuing to calculate separate normalization factors for MA-PD plans and PDPs. They also seem to have locked in a formula for Part D stabilization, it does not look like it would be sufficient to change the PDP commission reality.

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