Sparta

Prompt E/W above $75/mt. Naphtha has repriced violently as AG supply is cut a second time. Cracks climb to new highs. MOPJ back to war-era backwardation. MED premiums surging. The deal-collapse tail is now the base case. Risk still to the upside. Read Jorge Molinero’s full analyst brief here: https://lnkd.in/gZGJWxB3 #naphtha #oilmarkets #oott

Diesel cracks just hit eight-year extremes. Two supply shocks are landing at once: renewed US-Iran fighting around Hormuz and Russia's diesel export ban. Jet diffs are near record, and crude, gasoline and freight are all repricing. Neil Crosby, James Noel-Beswick and the team map what's tightening and where the trade sits this week. Read the full roundup below 👇 Get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://lnkd.in/eZG3quKV #oilmarkets #commoditytrading #oott #newsletter

Distillates supply was never fixed, only papered over. The tension flagged two weeks ago is back at the surface. James Noel-Beswick on Trade with Conviction. Sign up to Sparta Market Outlook today and get forward-looking insights straight to your inbox: https://lnkd.in/ewneHY-n #oott #oilmarkets #crudeoil #commoditytrading

Gasoline cracks are ripping to new highs on renewed US-Iran risk, but this rally looks different than the beginning of the conflict. This time, thinner inventories of finished grades and components leave the market with far less cushion. RBOB, EBOB and SING92 are all pricing bullish, but for different reasons. ▸ EBOB blend costs have jumped from +$9.5/mt to +$38.5/mt against July EBOB. ▸ PADD 1 inventories keep declining, while physical TA arbs across the prompt curve are closed. ▸ Into August and September, SING92 now holds the arbitrage edge over EBOB and RBOB into much of Africa, Asia, and the Americas. Read Nikolas Plonski's full gasoline deep dive: https://lnkd.in/eDGRQUTS #oilmarkets #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott

Houston to Rotterdam diesel arb shut by -$10.75/mt. Bearish USGC MR freight TC14 to weaken, with the tonnage list long and arb margins negative. TC2 demand is stronger, propped up by a recently open RBOB arb into NYC and open naphtha arbs. ▸ TC14 to soften from WS 238 to WS 223. ▸ TC2 outlook is neutral supported by a number of open arbs. Michael Ryan's full Atlantic CPP MR breakdown: https://lnkd.in/eSCAbBFC #oott #oilmarkets #freight

Diesel is edging toward a genuine worst-case scenario. Cracks are high, but flat prices may not have topped yet and spreads don't look too expensive yet. Russian bans, Hormuz risk and a possible Chinese export pullback are colliding as we inch towards pricing post-summer turnarounds and cooler temperatures. Read Neil Crosby's full analyst brief here: https://lnkd.in/eeUxGYTs #oott #oilmarkets #crudeoil

Sparta's next live webinar: 𝐖𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐞'𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐞𝐥 𝐨𝐢𝐥 𝐚𝐫𝐛 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲? Miss the Rotterdam-Singapore arbitrage and you've missed a big move on both sides. Or miss MR economics on AG-Singapore high sulphur cargoes beating Aframax and Suezmax and you’ve left money on the table. The data is out there. It's just never in one place. The data is out there. It's just never in one place. In this session: ▸ Where fuel oil’s most important arbs stand today, live inside Sparta's Global Arbs Dashboard. ▸ What blend economics are telling us ▸ What's driving Fuel Oil’s trends and when they reach the turning points ▸ How to read arb signals yourself, without marking your own curves or chasing brokers. Jay M. and June Goh present live. Tuesday, 4th August | 07:30 UK / 08:30 CET / 14:30 SGP | Live webinar Register now 👇 #oott #oilmarkets #fueloil #commoditytrading #oiltrading

EBOB Aug/Sep spreads spiked to $65/mt on Hormuz risk. Still $20/mt off the seasonal peak. TA arb barely moved, so this is a macro story hitting gasoline buyers on both sides of the Atlantic. Trump's reversal on the "20% charge" could pare back some gains, but weak ARA blend margins and tight inventories still point to a tighter European market. Jay M. on why there's still room to run. Read the full gasoline brief here: https://lnkd.in/ebMyeHuV #oilmarkets #gasoline #oiltrading #commoditytrading #oott

From Reuters, with analysis from June Goh, Senior Oil Analyst at Sparta: The brief oil glut in Asia is gone. Now the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could be the next chokepoint to close. ▸ June Goh: "The mini-glut of oil has now evaporated, with a fresh eye of a potential of disruptions from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Houthis are joining the attacks." ▸ Dubai crude's prompt spread flipped into backwardation of nearly $1/bbl, reversing three weeks of contango. ▸ Just five vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, with zero oil or LNG tankers among them. Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/epgw33Sh #oott #crudeoil #asia #singapore

From The New York Times, with analysis from Neil Crosby, Head of Research at Sparta: A 20% Hormuz toll could turn a $10/bbl shipping cost into $26/bbl overnight. Shipowners now face an impossible choice. ▸ Trump's proposed 20% cargo-value fee could push Hormuz shipping costs from $10/bbl to $26/bbl, over $30 million in extra costs on a single VLCC carrying two million barrels. ▸ Neil Crosby: "I see this as a reason for shipowners to get less comfortable in the region, alongside the attacks." Read the full article: https://lnkd.in/em-9xv9F #oott #crudeoil #freight #oilmarkets