Hangar A reposted this
I read the peak surcharge this morning. September 29 to January 18. A whole 112 days. The highest was $8.75 per package. It's all published by July. This gets crisis status every year, but it’s the most scheduled crisis in business that I know of. I can sit and drink my coffee, look at what the surcharges will be, knowing capacity won’t meet demand. The dates are public and the prices are already on rate cards. The crunch then isn't a prediction failure, but a crowd issue. And the forecast can’t fix the crowd, just ensure you know you’ll be standing in line in it. 112 days now. Peak used to mean the stretch between Black Friday and Christmas. A decade ago, these surcharges barely existed. Then everyone tried to get ahead of the crunch and book earlier, ship earlier, pull inventory forward. The carriers priced this new behavior, and the window stretched out to meet it. So the schedule now starts in September. Which is why the standard peak playbook keeps disappointing people. Earlier bookings, tighter forecasts, better dashboards. All of it sharpens your position in the same line. The move that can change everything is a different line, and there are more of them than most brands use. Regional carriers have capacity that the nationals don't touch. There is air for the long lanes, lifting the middle mile off the ground network entirely. The big networks jam together on this schedule. And when peak is a third of the year, a second network that fails independently is worth more than a discount.